🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."